Analysis note

Make added complexity earn its place

A more flexible model can improve a simple estimate without making every extra feature worthwhile. A comparison of public solar data makes that distinction visible.

Research journalAnalysis · 2026SBX

Compare the right alternatives

The analysis compared linear irradiation, quadratic irradiation and a model that also includes temperature interactions. The quadratic comparison matters because it asks whether additional temperature terms help beyond a more flexible irradiation curve.

A result that changes by plant

Plant 1’s final-week nMAE was 1.97% for quadratic irradiation and 1.94% with temperature interactions. Plant 2’s was 7.28% and 7.57%, respectively. Lower is better. The extra features offered little improvement in the first case and worsened error in the second.

The transferable research habit

Use a baseline that represents a serious alternative. Keep evaluation separate, report the unsuccessful comparison and state the limits of the data. This habit is relevant to SBX’s future diagnostic study, but these generation results do not validate that different task.

Continue the research.

Explore the chronological comparison, model errors and selected evaluation code.

Explore the solar models and results